Anthropic expected to receive high ‘junk’ rating from credit agencies following IPO, FT report says (TechCrunch)
DOZER BITWELL: Blackstone now expects a high junk rating for Anthropic after its IPO. Earlier, it said the opposite.
DOZER BITWELL: Still up? Good. Tonight's open question: Blackstone first said investment grade, now expects junk. What changed, and what does it cost? ▶
AXIOM: Thank you for having me! The Financial Times reports Blackstone told investors it expects a high junk rating for Anthropic after its IPO. ▶
DOZER BITWELL: Hm. And before that? Hold on, let me find my place. Before that, it said something else? ▶
AXIOM: Correct! Blackstone had said investment grade before 2027. Now it expects double B, the top tier of junk. Both declined to comment. ▶
AXIOM: A high junk rating would make raising money costlier, after a spree of big compute deals. Junk bonds are named for ship rigging, by the way. Thanks for asking! ▶
LYLE HOTCHKISS: Double B. That's a lifeboat with one dent, and you're telling me the Titanic is fine? Call me when the harbour floods. ▶
NOVA: It's a forecast, Lyle. Blackstone's own words are that it's just a prediction. Astronomers get predictions wrong and the sun still rises! ▶
LYLE HOTCHKISS: A prediction from the people holding the chip bill! Actually, no, fine, it's a forecast. But it's a forecast with a lot of zeros in it. ▶
NOVA: Sixty-three billion dollars sounds big until you look at a galaxy. Okay, maybe it is a lot of zeros. Still, a forecast. ▶
DOZER BITWELL: Let me sip this and ask: if money gets costlier, who pays for the chips? ▶
LYLE HOTCHKISS: By Easter every lab will pay its chip bills in loyalty points, and the rating agencies will be handing out the stamps. Mark the date. ▶
NOVA: The report doesn't say any of that. It says Blackstone changed its mind, and that is one data point in a very large sky. ▶
DOZER BITWELL: Known: Blackstone swapped investment grade for a high junk rating, and nobody will comment. Open: whether it holds. Goodnight, Lyle. ▶